Tuesday, February 26, 2008

The sides are forming



As of today, most western countries have recognized, or stated that they intend to recognize Kosovo as an independent nation. Canada still remains neutral (no explanation will be attempted) and Spain is opposing the secession. In the case of Spain there is little doubt that the refusal to accept Kosovo as independent is grounded on the fear that the Basque and Catalonian regions might follow suit. The situation in these regions is not exactly the same as for Kosovo though, a province (country) that was stripped of its political and cultural influence after a referendum initiated by a certain Slobodan Milosevic, has been through a 4 year long armed conflict with Serbian and Yugoslavian security forces, and was subjected to ethnic cleansing by above mentioned president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. I doubt that Spain has reason to fear recognition of its separatist regions by the international community.

Another (more) important nation that has opposed the declaration of independence is Putin’s Russia. Russia and Serbia have a history of alliance and the Russian peace keeping forces were welcomed as saviors in Serbia since they were the only armed force not (totally) under NATO command. The Russian support for Serbia in this secession case seems to come at a price though. Putin’s inevitable heir to the throne, Medvedev, who is also the chairman of Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, has just recently signed a deal with Serbia on a gas pipeline that will run under the black see, through Romania, and later into western Europe. Analysts say that Serbia is giving away their resources at bargain prices. He also took the opportunity to offer a bid on Serbia’s state run oil company, NIS. The offer was 600 million $, one fifth of the estimated market value. Regarding the recognition of Kosovo, Mr Medvedev was quoted

”It is absolutely obvious that the crisis that has happened is the responsibility of those who have made the illegal decision and will unfortunately have long-term consequences for peace on the European continent.”

Although an armed conflict between Russian forces and NATO/US is unthinkable, I can’t help to think what will happen if NATO forces once again have to intervene. The cold war is over and can never be revived, right?

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