Some people in China are saying that the earthquake could have been predicted, that reports from seismologists about abnormal activity were discarded by the government, that rapidly changing water levels should have been a warning sign, and that strange animal behaviour should have been interpreted as an omen. It is the latter theory that interests me. This strange behaviour includes cows launching themselves into fences, zebras banging their heads on doors, elephants swinging their trunks wildly, and toads swarming a town that was later devastated by the quake. A Chinese TV station did a reportage on the toad infestation. If you want to watch the video, it is still available. It wouldn’t surprise me though if it disappears shortly. People who have been spreading rumors about the quake's possible prediction are going to be punished accoding to the government. The nature of the punishment was not revealed. Also, when a reporter asked a question about these rumors at a live news conference, it was immidiately cut off to show archived footage. When they came back on air, no more questions of this nature were posed.
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The idea that animals can sense when a natural disaster is lurking around the bend is known since long. American scientists have even researched the phenomena but without conclusions. Thinking about it only wrinkles my forehead and I can't come up with any logical or illogical hypothesis.
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There is a lot of superstition surrounding the toad. Some see it as an embodiment of an evil spirit or a witch; some see it as a sign of good fortune, and others, as a sign of impending death! But let’s be reasonable, unless the toad is nature’s own seismometer, this swarming thing was just a fluke. But if I should ever happen to see more than 5 frogs at the same time, I'm not sure I would stick around..
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